然而,这种表面的平静下潜藏着更大的暗流。当前真正的“灰犀牛”,并非地缘冲突本身,而是其可能引发的货币政策剧变。倘若油价因供应中断而持续高企,将进一步固化美国的通胀压力,迫使美联储暂停甚至逆转降息进程。
James told the BBC that investors are forecasting higher inflation in the UK "and that could take one of the interest cuts that was pencilled in off the table".
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